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Think the China market is big, wait till you see the Infrastructure!
Location: BlogsSunny Blog    
Posted by: Justin Forest 8/5/2008 1:39 PM
Think the China market is big, wait till you see the Infrastructure!

 

“Macquarie Infrastructure Company estimates that global infra spending will reach $30 trillion in the next two decades. The increasing popularity of the group has made for a wild rise -- earlier this year, amid growing fears of a global recession, the stocks got pummeled. “ 

 
Ok ok maybe they are wrong by a factor of 3 times... it’s still 10 Trillion horses!
 
 
How to Find 'Cheap' Stocks With the EV/EBITDA
 
It’s important that you’re familiar with this valuation metric especially when it comes to valuating companies that requires heavy investments. It’s a more reliable metric compare to PE. PE can be extremely distorted because of depreciation. FLR for instant spots a PE of about 19. It’s PEG (PE to growth … a derivative measure of PE) shows 1.25 indicates a little over fair value. But EV/EBITDA is currently 11.5 and that’s like WAY WAY over priced. The reason for this is because they stretch out the depreciation schedule (accounting manipulation) over a very long period.
 
Here’s the thing to remember. EV/EBITDA …<5 = dirt cheap > 10 = pricey.
 
Check out CX and CRH’s EV/EBITDA
 
 
 
A Stock for Dad: Cemex
 
An old 2003 article I found on Cemex….
 
Cemex (NYSE: CX) has a stranglehold on the cement market in Mexico. It also controls large portions of the cement business in Colombia, has large stakes in Egypt, the Caribbean, Spain, Indonesia, and courtesy of an acquisition of Southdown, is one of the largest cement producers in the United States
 
And unlike other commodity products, there are some excellent moats around a well-run cement business that make it a true diamond in the rough. For one, cement has a nice countercyclical element to it. When the economy is perking along, people build stuff. Stuff that in many cases needs cement. When economies are faltering, governments tend to step in and build stuff. And almost every government project I can think of requires cement. (remember this was in 2003)
 
MOAT or competitive advantage
 
Cement manufacturing is capital intensive and has some significant economies of scale. This means that unless an area's cement demand is spiraling, it's pretty tough for a competitor to unseat the dominant local provider. a local cement plant will have a built-in advantage over one that requires long-distance transport -- the transport costs would destroy any price advantage that otherwise exists.
 
But why Cemex? For one, the company's stock is cheap (This was back in 2003, when the stock went from $10 to $40 in 3 years)
 
 
 
 
 
Five years after the blackout, experts warn it could happen again
 
Five years after the worst blackout in North American history…they fear that larger, systemic issues could soon lead to even bigger and more damaging outages
 
Supply is down
 
Excess capacity in the system is shrinking and construction, as well as plans for new plants, has slowed as costs to build and operate them have soared.
 
and say there is even more resistance to building new plants due to the debate over climate change and opposition to new transmission lines.
 
The level of excess capacity has shrunk down in the last few years to a level barely within the planning toleration of the industry,"
 
Demand is up
 
But even as Americans demand more power to feed flat-screen televisions, video games, surround-sound systems and appliances, there is broad opposition to infrastructure that experts say is needed, and the costs are only going up.
 
If you don't have generation and transmission ... something has to give," he said
 
 Invest in building electricity generator (coal, hydro, gas) and Transmission lines (which requires LOTs of STEEL...)
 
 
 
 
American Airlines speeds up purchase of fuel-efficient 737s
 
 
AMR Corp.'s American Airlines said it would accelerate its purchase of 737-800 aircraft from Boeing Co. to modernize its fleet and retire older, fuel-guzzling airplanes.
 
to accelerate plans to begin replacing its aging fleet of 300 MD-80s. That aircraft, a workhorse airplane that American uses for most of its domestic flights, has an average age of 18 years at the airline and burns about 35 per cent more fuel than the 737s that will replace them, American said.
 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080814.WSJAMR14/TPStory/?query=american+airlines
 
Airline demand is Up..Buy Bombardier! Dirt cheap, high leverage, it’s also an infrastructure play as well with their train products. Toronto metro is rebuilding its transit system…costing them over 14 Bil! Somebody’s gotta supply those trains
 
Starting an Airline - interested to start an airline company? :)
 
http://boeing.com/commercial/startup/index.html
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